BUF
5–6
TBL
Final / OT · L
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 9-12-1
5–6
Final / OTL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 13-7-1
1ST2ND3RDOTT
BUF
2141821005537
TBL
2411021011625
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–2
BUF 9-12-1 · TBL 13-7-1 · Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–2
Sabres fell to the Lightning
The Sabres let a 5–3 lead get away: the Lightning came back with three unanswered goals — Hagel's equalizer with 2:02 left and the goalie pulled — and won it in overtime on Stamkos's goal. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 2.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 4.8 expected goals to 3.7, on 37 and 25 shots on goal.
BUF 4.8 xG · 37 shots
TBL 3.7 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
1.8 · 0.7
2nd
0.8 · 1.0
3rd
0.5 · 1.9
OT · the swing
1.7 · 0.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brayden Point · 1st 07:54 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
2
Corey Perry · 1st 16:48 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Tage Thompson · 1st 17:54 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
4
Jack Quinn · 1st 18:53 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Tyson Jost · 2nd 09:07 · 3–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
6
Brayden Point · 2nd 16:26 · 3–3 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Dylan Cozens · 3rd 09:37 · 4–3 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
· 3rd 14:19 · 5–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
9
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 14:35 · 5–4 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
10
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 17:58 · 5–5 · slap shot, a great chance (31%)
11
Steven Stamkos · OT 02:44 · 5–6 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 64.
BUF 64%TBL 36%
Goals and penalties
11 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brayden Point · 1st 07:54 · PP · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
2
Corey Perry · 1st 16:48 · 0–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Tage Thompson · 1st 17:54 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
4
Jack Quinn · 1st 18:53 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Tyson Jost · 2nd 09:07 · 3–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
6
Brayden Point · 2nd 16:26 · PP · 3–3
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Dylan Cozens · 3rd 09:37 · 4–3
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
· 3rd 14:19 · 5–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
9
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 14:35 · 5–4
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
10
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 17:58 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 5–5
Slap shot, a great chance (31%)
11
Steven Stamkos · OT 02:44 · GWG · 5–6
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
19/25 saves · 6 GA · 3.7 xGA
Allowed 2.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
32/37 saves · 5 GA · 4.8 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
