BUF
4–6
COL
Final · L
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 10-13-1
4–6
FinalL
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 13-7-1
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
2811119428
COL
19413112634
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–1
BUF 10-13-1 · COL 13-7-1 · First meeting this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–1
Sabres fell to the Avalanche
Chances were even (3.6 to 4.0 expected goals); the Sabres lost 4–6. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 1.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.6 expected goals to 4.0, on 28 and 34 shots on goal.
BUF 3.6 xG · 28 shots
COL 4.0 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.8 · 0.7
2nd · the swing
1.5 · 2.4
3rd
1.4 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
J.T. Compher · 1st 08:48 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
2
JJ Peterka · 1st 10:19 · 1–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
3
Tage Thompson · 1st 19:49 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Nathan MacKinnon · 2nd 09:00 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
5
Artturi Lehkonen · 2nd 09:49 · 2–3 · backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
6
Nathan MacKinnon · 2nd 11:53 · 2–4 · snap shot, a good chance (17%)
7
Dylan Cozens · 2nd 14:05 · 3–4 · slap shot, a great chance (27%)
8
J.T. Compher · 2nd 17:16 · 3–5 · snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
9
Alex Tuch · 3rd 00:07 · 4–5 · backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
10
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 19:25 · 4–6 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 45.
BUF 45%COL 55%
Goals and penalties
10 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Avalanche shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
J.T. Compher · 1st 08:48 · PP · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
2
JJ Peterka · 1st 10:19 · 1–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
3
Tage Thompson · 1st 19:49 · PP · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Nathan MacKinnon · 2nd 09:00 · PP · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
5
Artturi Lehkonen · 2nd 09:49 · PP · 2–3
Backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
6
Nathan MacKinnon · 2nd 11:53 · 2–4
Snap shot, a good chance (17%)
7
Dylan Cozens · 2nd 14:05 · PP · 3–4
Slap shot, a great chance (27%)
8
J.T. Compher · 2nd 17:16 · GWG · 3–5
Snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
9
Alex Tuch · 3rd 00:07 · 4–5
Backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
10
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 19:25 · EN · 4–6
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
28/33 saves · 5 GA · 4.0 xGA
Allowed 1.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
24/28 saves · 4 GA · 3.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
