BUF
5–3
TBL
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 32-25-4
5–3
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 37-20-5
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
11331714534
TBL
11308215336
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
BUF 32-25-4 · TBL 37-20-5 · Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
Sabres beat the Lightning
Chances were even (3.2 to 3.3 expected goals); the Sabres won 5–3. Brian Elliott allowed 1.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.2 expected goals to 3.3, on 34 and 36 shots on goal.
BUF 3.2 xG · 34 shots
TBL 3.3 xG · 36 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.0 · 1.2
2nd · the swing
1.7 · 0.9
3rd
0.5 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brayden Point · 1st 13:28 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Tage Thompson · 1st 16:15 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Vinnie Hinostroza · 2nd 05:35 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Tyson Jost · 2nd 12:30 · 3–1 · backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Jack Quinn · 2nd 19:46 · 4–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
6
· 3rd 00:53 · 5–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
7
Alex Killorn · 3rd 02:55 · 5–2 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
8
Alex Killorn · 3rd 13:18 · 5–3 · backhand shot, a good chance (22%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 48.
BUF 48%TBL 52%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brayden Point · 1st 13:28 · PP · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Tage Thompson · 1st 16:15 · PP · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Vinnie Hinostroza · 2nd 05:35 · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Tyson Jost · 2nd 12:30 · 3–1
Backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Jack Quinn · 2nd 19:46 · GWG · 4–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
6
· 3rd 00:53 · PP · 5–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
7
Alex Killorn · 3rd 02:55 · 5–2
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
8
Alex Killorn · 3rd 13:18 · SH · 5–3
Backhand shot, a good chance (22%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
33/36 saves · 3 GA · 3.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
29/34 saves · 5 GA · 3.2 xGA
Allowed 1.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
