BUF
6–3
DET
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 17-14-2
6–3
FinalW
Detroit Red Wings
DET · 15-12-7
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
114411110635
DET
0707317331
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 3–0
BUF 17-14-2 · DET 15-12-7 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 3–0
Sabres beat the Red Wings
Chances were even (3.4 to 3.0 expected goals); the Sabres won 6–3. Magnus Hellberg allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.4 expected goals to 3.0, on 35 and 31 shots on goal.
BUF 3.4 xG · 35 shots
DET 3.0 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.0 · 0.9
2nd · the swing
1.6 · 0.6
3rd
0.8 · 1.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Casey Mittelstadt · 1st 15:32 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
2
· 2nd 01:20 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 10:28 · 3–0 · backhand shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Kyle Okposo · 2nd 11:21 · 4–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Kyle Okposo · 2nd 14:02 · 5–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
6
Dominik Kubalik · 3rd 02:35 · 5–1 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Dominik Kubalik · 3rd 04:23 · 5–2 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
8
· 3rd 07:11 · 5–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
9
Kyle Okposo · 3rd 16:22 · 6–3 · snap shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 56.
BUF 56%DET 44%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Red Wings shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Casey Mittelstadt · 1st 15:32 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
2
· 2nd 01:20 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 10:28 · PP · 3–0
Backhand shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Kyle Okposo · 2nd 11:21 · GWG · 4–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Kyle Okposo · 2nd 14:02 · 5–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
6
Dominik Kubalik · 3rd 02:35 · 5–1
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Dominik Kubalik · 3rd 04:23 · PP · 5–2
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
8
· 3rd 07:11 · 5–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
9
Kyle Okposo · 3rd 16:22 · EN · 6–3
Snap shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
28/31 saves · 3 GA · 3.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
29/34 saves · 5 GA · 3.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
