Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 26-20-4
1–5
FinalL
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 34-9-8
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
1908013130
CAR
31701225534
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–2
BUF 26-20-4 · CAR 34-9-8 · Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–2
Sabres fell to the Hurricanes
Chances were even (2.5 to 2.6 expected goals); the Sabres lost 1–5. Antti Raanta stopped 1.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.5 expected goals to 2.6, on 30 and 34 shots on goal.
BUF 2.5 xG · 30 shots
CAR 2.6 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
0.5 · 1.5
2nd
0.7 · 0.6
3rd
1.3 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Sebastian Aho · 1st 02:35 · 0–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Stefan Noesen · 1st 10:05 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Brent Burns · 1st 12:47 · 0–3 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Alex Tuch · 1st 14:45 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
5
Derek Stepan · 3rd 10:30 · 1–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Jordan Martinook · 3rd 18:19 · 1–5 · wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 47.
BUF 47%CAR 53%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Sebastian Aho · 1st 02:35 · PP · 0–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Stefan Noesen · 1st 10:05 · GWG · 0–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Brent Burns · 1st 12:47 · 0–3
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Alex Tuch · 1st 14:45 · 1–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
5
Derek Stepan · 3rd 10:30 · 1–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Jordan Martinook · 3rd 18:19 · EN · 1–5
Wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
29/33 saves · 4 GA · 2.6 xGA
Allowed 1.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
29/30 saves · 1 GA · 2.5 xGA
Stopped 1.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.