BUF
3–6
TOR
Final · L
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 28-23-4
3–6
FinalL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 35-15-8
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
08011313332
TOR
4151816629
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–2
BUF 28-23-4 · TOR 35-15-8 · Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–2
Sabres fell to the Maple Leafs
The Sabres were outchanced (3.5 to 2.2 expected goals) and lost 3–6. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 2.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 2.2, on 29 and 32 shots on goal.
BUF 2.2 xG · 32 shots
TOR 3.5 xG · 29 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
0.6 · 1.4
2nd
0.8 · 1.1
3rd
0.8 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Ryan O'Reilly · 1st 03:51 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Ryan O'Reilly · 1st 04:28 · 0–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (13%)
3
John Tavares · 1st 07:14 · 0–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
4
Michael Bunting · 1st 12:09 · 0–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
William Nylander · 2nd 14:36 · 0–5 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
6
Jack Quinn · 3rd 05:12 · 1–5 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Alex Tuch · 3rd 08:01 · 2–5 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
8
· 3rd 16:29 · 3–5 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
9
Ryan O'Reilly · 3rd 18:50 · 3–6 · backhand shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 30.
BUF 30%TOR 70%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Ryan O'Reilly · 1st 03:51 · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Ryan O'Reilly · 1st 04:28 · 0–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (13%)
3
John Tavares · 1st 07:14 · 0–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
4
Michael Bunting · 1st 12:09 · GWG · 0–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
William Nylander · 2nd 14:36 · PP · 0–5
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
6
Jack Quinn · 3rd 05:12 · 1–5
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Alex Tuch · 3rd 08:01 · 2–5
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
8
· 3rd 16:29 · 3–5
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
9
Ryan O'Reilly · 3rd 18:50 · EN · 3–6
Backhand shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
17/18 saves · 1 GA · 2.3 xGA
Stopped 1.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
6/10 saves · 4 GA · 1.2 xGA
Allowed 2.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
