BUF
4–3
CAR
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 39-32-7
4–3
FinalW
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 50-20-9
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
16212112430
CAR
212110012334
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 1–2
BUF 39-32-7 · CAR 50-20-9 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 1–2
Sabres beat the Hurricanes
The Sabres were outchanced (3.5 to 2.8 expected goals) but won 4–3 anyway. Antti Raanta allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Hurricanes created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 2.8, on 34 and 30 shots on goal.
BUF 2.8 xG · 30 shots
CAR 3.5 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
0.4 · 1.2
2nd
1.3 · 0.8
3rd
1.1 · 1.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Casey Mittelstadt · 1st 04:00 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Seth Jarvis · 1st 14:34 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Jesper Fast · 1st 14:56 · 1–2 · tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 04:04 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Sebastian Aho · 2nd 11:04 · 2–3 · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 18:18 · 3–3 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Tage Thompson · 3rd 06:15 · 4–3 · snap shot, a good chance (14%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 39.
BUF 39%CAR 61%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Hurricanes shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Casey Mittelstadt · 1st 04:00 · 1–0
Backhand shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Seth Jarvis · 1st 14:34 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Jesper Fast · 1st 14:56 · 1–2
Tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 04:04 · PP · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Sebastian Aho · 2nd 11:04 · 2–3
Snap shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 18:18 · 3–3
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Tage Thompson · 3rd 06:15 · GWG · 4–3
Snap shot, a good chance (14%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
31/34 saves · 3 GA · 3.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
26/30 saves · 4 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
