BUF
4–3
OTT
Final / OT · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 41-33-7
4–3
Final / OTW
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 39-35-8
1ST2ND3RDOTT
BUF
01221311011436
OTT
01131201000333
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
BUF 41-33-7 · OTT 39-35-8 · Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
Sabres beat the Senators
The Sabres earned it: 3.5 expected goals to 2.1, and they won it in overtime on Mittelstadt's goal.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 2.1, on 36 and 33 shots on goal.
BUF 3.5 xG · 36 shots
OTT 2.1 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.2 · 0.6
2nd
1.2 · 0.9
3rd
0.8 · 0.5
OT
0.2 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Henri Jokiharju · 2nd 00:43 · 1–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
2
Victor Olofsson · 2nd 02:46 · 2–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
3
Tim Stützle · 2nd 04:27 · 2–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
· 2nd 06:11 · 2–2 · slap shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Claude Giroux · 2nd 12:36 · 2–3 · deflected shot, a good chance (11%)
6
Tage Thompson · 3rd 03:03 · 3–3 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Casey Mittelstadt · OT 01:18 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 73.
BUF 73%OTT 27%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Senators shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Henri Jokiharju · 2nd 00:43 · 1–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
2
Victor Olofsson · 2nd 02:46 · 2–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
3
Tim Stützle · 2nd 04:27 · PP · 2–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
· 2nd 06:11 · 2–2
Slap shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Claude Giroux · 2nd 12:36 · 2–3
Deflected shot, a good chance (11%)
6
Tage Thompson · 3rd 03:03 · PP · 3–3
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Casey Mittelstadt · OT 01:18 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
30/33 saves · 3 GA · 2.1 xGA
Allowed 0.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
32/36 saves · 4 GA · 3.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
