BUF
3–2
TBL
Final / OT · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 1-2-0
3–2
Final / OTW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-2-1
1ST2ND3RDOTT
BUF
211090912331
TBL
081611100225
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
BUF 1-2-0 · TBL 1-2-1 · First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
Sabres beat the Lightning
The Sabres were outchanced (3.8 to 2.6 expected goals) but won it in overtime on Cozens's goal anyway. Devon Levi stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.8 expected goals to 2.6, on 25 and 31 shots on goal.
BUF 2.6 xG · 31 shots
TBL 3.8 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.6 · 1.0
2nd
0.8 · 1.4
3rd
0.8 · 1.4
OT
0.4 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Zemgus Girgensons · 1st 08:57 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
· 1st 15:28 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 17:58 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
4
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 19:53 · 2–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (24%)
5
Dylan Cozens · OT 01:46 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 32.
BUF 32%TBL 68%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Zemgus Girgensons · 1st 08:57 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
· 1st 15:28 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 17:58 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
4
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 19:53 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 2–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (24%)
5
Dylan Cozens · OT 01:46 · GWG · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
23/25 saves · 2 GA · 3.8 xGA
Stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
28/31 saves · 3 GA · 2.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
