Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 7-6-1
3–2
FinalW
Minnesota Wild
MIN · 5-7-2
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
1111618325
MIN
110014111235
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
BUF 7-6-1 · MIN 5-7-2 · First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
Sabres beat the Wild
The Sabres were outchanced (4.5 to 2.3 expected goals) but won 3–2 anyway. Devon Levi stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Wild created the better chances: 4.5 expected goals to 2.3, on 35 and 25 shots on goal.
BUF 2.3 xG · 25 shots
MIN 4.5 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
0.8 · 1.1
2nd
0.6 · 1.6
3rd · the swing
0.9 · 1.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Henri Jokiharju · 1st 18:02 · 1–0 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Kirill Kaprizov · 1st 19:30 · 1–1 · slap shot, a good chance (15%)
3
· 2nd 19:02 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
4
JJ Peterka · 3rd 03:33 · 3–1 · snap shot, a good chance (24%)
5
Joel Eriksson Ek · 3rd 12:27 · 3–2 · slap shot, a good chance (19%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 20.
BUF 20%MIN 80%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Henri Jokiharju · 1st 18:02 · 1–0
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Kirill Kaprizov · 1st 19:30 · PP · 1–1
Slap shot, a good chance (15%)
3
· 2nd 19:02 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
4
JJ Peterka · 3rd 03:33 · GWG · 3–1
Snap shot, a good chance (24%)
5
Joel Eriksson Ek · 3rd 12:27 · PP · 3–2
Slap shot, a good chance (19%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
33/35 saves · 2 GA · 4.5 xGA
Stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
22/25 saves · 3 GA · 2.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.