BUF
1–3
TBL
Final · L
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 20-22-4
1–3
FinalL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 24-17-5
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
0616015127
TBL
250912316
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
BUF 20-22-4 · TBL 24-17-5 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Sabres fell to the Lightning
Chances were even (1.9 to 2.1 expected goals); the Sabres lost 1–3. An empty-net goal padded the final score; it was a one-goal game until then.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 1.9 expected goals to 2.1, on 27 and 16 shots on goal.
BUF 1.9 xG · 27 shots
TBL 2.1 xG · 16 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.7 · 0.5
2nd · the swing
0.4 · 1.3
3rd
0.9 · 0.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nick Paul · 1st 06:14 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (13%)
2
· 1st 07:06 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Dylan Cozens · 2nd 13:52 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Calvin de Haan · 3rd 18:44 · 1–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 48.
BUF 48%TBL 52%
Goals and penalties
4 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nick Paul · 1st 06:14 · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (13%)
2
· 1st 07:06 · SH · GWG · 0–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Dylan Cozens · 2nd 13:52 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Calvin de Haan · 3rd 18:44 · EN · 1–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
13/15 saves · 2 GA · 2.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
26/27 saves · 1 GA · 1.9 xGA
Stopped 0.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.
