BUF
4–2
PHI
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 37-35-5
4–2
FinalW
Philadelphia Flyers
PHI · 36-30-11
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
142817419
PHI
010113111234
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–1
BUF 37-35-5 · PHI 36-30-11 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–1
Sabres beat the Flyers
The Sabres were outchanced (2.5 to 1.9 expected goals) but won 4–2 anyway. Ivan Fedotov allowed 2.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Flyers created the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.9, on 34 and 19 shots on goal.
BUF 1.9 xG · 19 shots
PHI 2.5 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.5 · 1.2
2nd
0.6 · 0.7
3rd
0.9 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 10:01 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Noah Cates · 2nd 09:07 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 14:51 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Jack Quinn · 2nd 19:54 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Owen Tippett · 3rd 09:19 · 3–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Jack Quinn · 3rd 13:59 · 4–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (27%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 40.
BUF 40%PHI 60%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Flyers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 10:01 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Noah Cates · 2nd 09:07 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 14:51 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Jack Quinn · 2nd 19:54 · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Owen Tippett · 3rd 09:19 · 3–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Jack Quinn · 3rd 13:59 · 4–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (27%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
32/34 saves · 2 GA · 2.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
15/19 saves · 4 GA · 1.9 xGA
Allowed 2.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
