BUF
4–2
DAL
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 3-4-1
4–2
FinalW
Dallas Stars
DAL · 5-2-0
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
01021124425
DAL
08011211230
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
BUF 3-4-1 · DAL 5-2-0 · First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
Sabres beat the Stars
Chances were even (2.5 to 2.9 expected goals); the Sabres won 4–2. An empty-net goal padded the final score; it was a one-goal game until then.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.5 expected goals to 2.9, on 25 and 30 shots on goal.
BUF 2.5 xG · 25 shots
DAL 2.9 xG · 30 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.6 · 0.8
2nd
1.4 · 1.0
3rd
0.5 · 1.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Peyton Krebs · 2nd 12:21 · 1–0 · bat shot, a great chance (47%)
2
Ryan McLeod · 2nd 13:44 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Tage Thompson · 3rd 04:17 · 3–0 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Thomas Harley · 3rd 15:24 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Tyler Seguin · 3rd 17:48 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
6
Alex Tuch · 3rd 19:49 · 4–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 44.
BUF 44%DAL 56%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Stars shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Peyton Krebs · 2nd 12:21 · 1–0
Bat shot, a great chance (47%)
2
Ryan McLeod · 2nd 13:44 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Tage Thompson · 3rd 04:17 · GWG · 3–0
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Thomas Harley · 3rd 15:24 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Tyler Seguin · 3rd 17:48 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
6
Alex Tuch · 3rd 19:49 · EN · 4–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
28/30 saves · 2 GA · 2.9 xGA
Stopped 0.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.
21/24 saves · 3 GA · 2.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
