BUF
4–3
NSH
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 20-26-5
4–3
FinalW
Nashville Predators
NSH · 18-25-7
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
2917111427
NSH
21011308331
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
BUF 20-26-5 · NSH 18-25-7 · First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
Sabres beat the Predators
The Sabres were outchanced (2.6 to 2.0 expected goals) but won 4–3 anyway. Kulich's winner came with 2:04 left. Justus Annunen allowed 2.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Predators created the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 2.0, on 31 and 27 shots on goal.
BUF 2.0 xG · 27 shots
NSH 2.6 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.6 · 0.7
2nd · the swing
0.3 · 1.2
3rd
1.0 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Ryan McLeod · 1st 02:25 · 1–0 · poke shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
2
Jiri Kulich · 1st 08:41 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Luke Evangelista · 1st 10:56 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Brady Skjei · 1st 17:06 · 2–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Tommy Novak · 2nd 02:51 · 2–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
6
Jason Zucker · 2nd 12:26 · 3–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Jiri Kulich · 3rd 17:56 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 40.
BUF 40%NSH 60%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Predators shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Ryan McLeod · 1st 02:25 · 1–0
Poke shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
2
Jiri Kulich · 1st 08:41 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Luke Evangelista · 1st 10:56 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Brady Skjei · 1st 17:06 · 2–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Tommy Novak · 2nd 02:51 · 2–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
6
Jason Zucker · 2nd 12:26 · 3–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Jiri Kulich · 3rd 17:56 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
28/31 saves · 3 GA · 2.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
23/27 saves · 4 GA · 2.0 xGA
Allowed 2.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
