BUF
2–4
MTL
Final · L
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 24-29-5
2–4
FinalL
Montreal Canadiens
MTL · 29-26-5
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
092907225
MTL
09310110429
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–3
BUF 24-29-5 · MTL 29-26-5 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–3
Sabres fell to the Canadiens
Chances were even (1.9 to 2.4 expected goals); the Sabres lost 2–4. An empty-net goal padded the final score; it was a one-goal game until then.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 1.9 expected goals to 2.4, on 25 and 29 shots on goal.
BUF 1.9 xG · 25 shots
MTL 2.4 xG · 29 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.7 · 0.9
2nd
0.7 · 0.8
3rd
0.6 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Cole Caufield · 2nd 01:13 · 0–1 · slap shot, a good chance (17%)
2
Alex Tuch · 2nd 06:04 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 07:33 · 2–1 · slap shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Josh Anderson · 2nd 13:33 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Alex Newhook · 2nd 19:57 · 2–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
6
Jake Evans · 3rd 18:22 · 2–4 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 42.
BUF 42%MTL 58%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Canadiens shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Cole Caufield · 2nd 01:13 · PP · 0–1
Slap shot, a good chance (17%)
2
Alex Tuch · 2nd 06:04 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 07:33 · 2–1
Slap shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Josh Anderson · 2nd 13:33 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Alex Newhook · 2nd 19:57 · GWG · 2–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
6
Jake Evans · 3rd 18:22 · EN · 2–4
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
25/28 saves · 3 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 0.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
23/25 saves · 2 GA · 1.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
