BUF
3–2
OTT
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 29-35-6
3–2
FinalW
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 37-28-5
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
1111716324
OTT
11019013232
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 3–0
BUF 29-35-6 · OTT 37-28-5 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 3–0
Sabres beat the Senators
The Sabres were outchanced (2.9 to 1.4 expected goals) but won 3–2 anyway. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Senators created the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 1.4, on 32 and 24 shots on goal.
BUF 1.4 xG · 24 shots
OTT 2.9 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.5 · 0.8
2nd
0.4 · 0.9
3rd
0.5 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brady Tkachuk · 1st 01:35 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jack Quinn · 1st 18:31 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (13%)
3
David Perron · 2nd 07:39 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Jacob Bernard-Docker · 2nd 12:59 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
5
Tage Thompson · 3rd 01:23 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 23.
BUF 23%OTT 77%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Senators shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brady Tkachuk · 1st 01:35 · PP · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jack Quinn · 1st 18:31 · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (13%)
3
David Perron · 2nd 07:39 · PP · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Jacob Bernard-Docker · 2nd 12:59 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
5
Tage Thompson · 3rd 01:23 · GWG · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
30/32 saves · 2 GA · 2.9 xGA
Stopped 0.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.
21/24 saves · 3 GA · 1.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
