BUF
3–2
TBL
Final / SO · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 33-36-6
3–2
Final / SOW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 44-26-6
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT
BUF
09112113041338
TBL
0221305040224
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
BUF 33-36-6 · TBL 44-26-6 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Sabres beat the Lightning
The Sabres earned it: 3.5 expected goals to 2.4, and they won it in a shootout. Jonas Johansson stopped 1.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 2.4, on 38 and 24 shots on goal.
BUF 3.5 xG · 38 shots
TBL 2.4 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.7 · 0.2
2nd
1.0 · 1.3
3rd
0.8 · 0.6
OT
0.9 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brayden Point · 2nd 01:35 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Tage Thompson · 2nd 04:47 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Gage Goncalves · 2nd 13:01 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Jason Zucker · 3rd 05:07 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 67.
BUF 67%TBL 33%
Goals and penalties
4 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brayden Point · 2nd 01:35 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Tage Thompson · 2nd 04:47 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Gage Goncalves · 2nd 13:01 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Jason Zucker · 3rd 05:07 · PP · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Shootout
Decided in a shootout — Sabres
Goaltending
22/24 saves · 2 GA · 2.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
36/38 saves · 2 GA · 3.5 xGA
Stopped 1.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
