BUF
0–4
TOR
Final · L
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 35-39-7
0–4
FinalL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 51-26-4
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
01309013035
TOR
08111313432
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–3
BUF 35-39-7 · TOR 51-26-4 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–3
Sabres fell to the Maple Leafs
Chances were even (3.4 to 3.2 expected goals); the Sabres lost 0–4. Anthony Stolarz stopped 3.4 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.4 expected goals to 3.2, on 35 and 32 shots on goal.
BUF 3.4 xG · 35 shots
TOR 3.2 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 0.7
2nd
0.8 · 1.2
3rd
1.4 · 1.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Steven Lorentz · 2nd 14:15 · 0–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Mitch Marner · 3rd 15:39 · 0–2 · snap shot, a good chance (17%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 18:08 · 0–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
4
Nick Robertson · 3rd 18:43 · 0–4 · backhand shot, a good chance (24%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 54.
BUF 54%TOR 46%
Goals and penalties
4 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Steven Lorentz · 2nd 14:15 · GWG · 0–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Mitch Marner · 3rd 15:39 · 0–2
Snap shot, a good chance (17%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 18:08 · EN · 0–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
4
Nick Robertson · 3rd 18:43 · 0–4
Backhand shot, a good chance (24%)
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
28/31 saves · 3 GA · 3.2 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
35/35 saves · 0 GA · 3.4 xGA
Stopped 3.4 more goals than an average goalie would have.
