Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 1-3-0
8–4
FinalW
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 1-3-0
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
1342034827
OTT
18117212437
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
BUF 1-3-0 · OTT 1-3-0 · First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
Sabres beat the Senators
The Sabres were outchanced (3.7 to 2.5 expected goals) but won 8–4 anyway. Leevi Meriläinen allowed 4.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Senators created the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 2.5, on 37 and 27 shots on goal.
BUF 2.5 xG · 27 shots
OTT 3.7 xG · 37 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.4 · 0.8
2nd
1.8 · 1.8
3rd
0.3 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jack Quinn · 1st 08:01 · 1–0 · slap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Tim Stützle · 1st 16:09 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
3
Jake Sanderson · 2nd 03:58 · 1–2 · poke shot on a rebound, a great chance (35%)
4
Ryan McLeod · 2nd 06:46 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Alex Tuch · 2nd 10:17 · 3–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
6
Jason Zucker · 2nd 11:46 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Jason Zucker · 2nd 13:43 · 5–2 · tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
8
Shane Pinto · 3rd 00:40 · 5–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
9
Lars Eller · 3rd 02:15 · 5–4 · slap shot, a good chance (19%)
10
Ryan McLeod · 3rd 02:32 · 6–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
11
Jack Quinn · 3rd 03:17 · 7–4 · backhand shot, a good chance (18%)
12
Jiri Kulich · 3rd 16:44 · 8–4 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 32.
BUF 32%OTT 68%
Goals and penalties
12 goals · 12 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jack Quinn · 1st 08:01 · PP · 1–0
Slap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Tim Stützle · 1st 16:09 · 1–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
3
Jake Sanderson · 2nd 03:58 · PP · 1–2
Poke shot on a rebound, a great chance (35%)
4
Ryan McLeod · 2nd 06:46 · SH · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Alex Tuch · 2nd 10:17 · 3–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
6
Jason Zucker · 2nd 11:46 · PP · 4–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Jason Zucker · 2nd 13:43 · PP · GWG · 5–2
Tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
8
Shane Pinto · 3rd 00:40 · 5–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
9
Lars Eller · 3rd 02:15 · 5–4
Slap shot, a good chance (19%)
10
Ryan McLeod · 3rd 02:32 · 6–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
11
Jack Quinn · 3rd 03:17 · 7–4
Backhand shot, a good chance (18%)
12
Jiri Kulich · 3rd 16:44 · EN · 8–4
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
06:36
Fabian Zetterlund· Holding
Quinn scored on this power play
Minor
1
Bowen Byram, Rasmus Dahlin · Power play (Zetterlund, holding) · slap shot, a good chance (16%)
1–0
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:09
Ryan Johnson· Interference
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
13:21
Jacob Bryson· Delaying game
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
02:17
Bowen Byram· Tripping
Killed
Minor
3
Ridly Greig, Dylan Cozens · Power play (delaying game unsuccessful challenge) · poke shot on a rebound, a great chance (35%)
1–2
PEN
2 min
Bench minor
03:58
Bench· Delaying game unsuccessful challenge
Sanderson scored on this power play
Bench minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
05:48
Alex Tuch· Slashing
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:03
Shane Pinto· Roughing
Zucker scored on this power play
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:03
Conor Timmins· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:03
Claude Giroux· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:03
Claude Giroux· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:03
Peyton Krebs· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
13:12
Ridly Greig· High-sticking
Zucker scored on this power play
Minor
7
Josh Doan, Tage Thompson · Power play (Greig, high-sticking) · tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
5–2
3rd period
Goaltending
33/37 saves · 4 GA · 3.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
19/26 saves · 7 GA · 2.5 xGA
Allowed 4.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Sabres went 3-for-2 on the power play and allowed 1 on 5 Senators power plays.