Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 4-4-0
5–3
FinalW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 3-4-1
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
2122919530
TOR
29011114334
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
BUF 4-4-0 · TOR 3-4-1 · First meeting this season — the Sabres lead the season series 1–0
Sabres beat the Maple Leafs
Chances were even (2.7 to 2.7 expected goals); the Sabres won 5–3. Anthony Stolarz allowed 2.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.7 expected goals to 2.7, on 30 and 34 shots on goal.
BUF 2.7 xG · 30 shots
TOR 2.7 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.0 · 1.1
2nd
0.9 · 0.4
3rd
0.9 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Mattias Samuelsson · 1st 04:38 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
2
William Nylander · 1st 05:01 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Jiri Kulich · 1st 06:12 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Auston Matthews · 1st 12:45 · 2–2 · slap shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Tage Thompson · 2nd 07:20 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Mattias Samuelsson · 2nd 13:10 · 4–2 · slap shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Dakota Joshua · 3rd 01:55 · 4–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
8
Alex Tuch · 3rd 16:59 · 5–3 · backhand shot, a great chance (29%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 51.
BUF 51%TOR 49%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 6 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Mattias Samuelsson · 1st 04:38 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
2
William Nylander · 1st 05:01 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Jiri Kulich · 1st 06:12 · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Auston Matthews · 1st 12:45 · PP · 2–2
Slap shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Tage Thompson · 2nd 07:20 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Mattias Samuelsson · 2nd 13:10 · GWG · 4–2
Slap shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Dakota Joshua · 3rd 01:55 · 4–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
8
Alex Tuch · 3rd 16:59 · SH · 5–3
Backhand shot, a great chance (29%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
09:01
Rasmus Dahlin· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:39
Tage Thompson· Hooking
Matthews scored on this power play
Minor
4
John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Power play (Thompson, hooking) · slap shot, a good chance (12%)
2–2
PEN
2 min
Minor
13:23
Max Domi· Hooking
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
13:26
Calle Jarnkrok· High-sticking
Killed
Minor
2nd period
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
15:23
Rasmus Dahlin· Delaying game puck over glass
Killed
Minor
PEN
4 min
Double minor
19:48
Peyton Krebs· High-sticking
Killed
Double minor
Goaltending
31/34 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
25/30 saves · 5 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 2.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Sabres went 0-for-2 on the power play and allowed 1 on 4 Maple Leafs power plays.