BUF
2–6
CGY
Final · L
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 7-9-4
2–6
FinalL
Calgary Flames
CGY · 6-13-3
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
05212013230
CGY
211010414635
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–1
BUF 7-9-4 · CGY 6-13-3 · First meeting this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–1
Sabres fell to the Flames
The Sabres were outchanced (2.7 to 1.6 expected goals) and lost 2–6. Colten Ellis allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Flames created the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 1.6, on 35 and 30 shots on goal.
BUF 1.6 xG · 30 shots
CGY 2.7 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
0.3 · 1.2
2nd
0.8 · 0.3
3rd
0.5 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Rasmus Andersson · 1st 05:58 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
2
Joel Farabee · 1st 12:04 · 0–2 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Mattias Samuelsson · 2nd 10:21 · 1–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Tage Thompson · 2nd 15:57 · 2–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Morgan Frost · 3rd 02:02 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
6
Mikael Backlund · 3rd 07:34 · 2–4 · snap shot, a good chance (22%)
7
Joel Farabee · 3rd 09:50 · 2–5 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
8
Matt Coronato · 3rd 17:49 · 2–6 · slap shot, a good chance (22%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 30.
BUF 30%CGY 70%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 4 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Flames shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Rasmus Andersson · 1st 05:58 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
2
Joel Farabee · 1st 12:04 · 0–2
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Mattias Samuelsson · 2nd 10:21 · 1–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Tage Thompson · 2nd 15:57 · 2–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Morgan Frost · 3rd 02:02 · GWG · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
6
Mikael Backlund · 3rd 07:34 · 2–4
Snap shot, a good chance (22%)
7
Joel Farabee · 3rd 09:50 · 2–5
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
8
Matt Coronato · 3rd 17:49 · 2–6
Slap shot, a good chance (22%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
02:39
Morgan Frost· Hooking
Morgan Frost· Hooking
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
18:17
Josh Dunne· Interference
Josh Dunne· Interference
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:39
Joel Hanley· Interference
Joel Hanley· Interference
Killed
Minor
3
Unassisted · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
1–2
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:39
Blake Coleman· Holding the stick
Blake Coleman· Holding the stick
Killed
Minor
3rd period
Goaltending
29/35 saves · 6 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
28/30 saves · 2 GA · 1.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
The Sabres went 0-for-3 on the power play and killed all 1 Flames power play.