Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 9-9-4
4–1
FinalW
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 14-6-2
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
1721014421
CAR
15012013130
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
BUF 9-9-4 · CAR 14-6-2 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Sabres beat the Hurricanes
Chances were even (3.1 to 3.3 expected goals); the Sabres won 4–1. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.1 expected goals to 3.3, on 21 and 30 shots on goal.
BUF 3.1 xG · 21 shots
CAR 3.3 xG · 30 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 0.8
2nd
1.3 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
0.6 · 1.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 05:51 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Shayne Gostisbehere · 1st 14:36 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Jack Quinn · 2nd 03:55 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Beck Malenstyn · 2nd 18:36 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Tage Thompson · 3rd 19:38 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 47.
BUF 47%CAR 53%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 8 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 05:51 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Shayne Gostisbehere · 1st 14:36 · PP · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Jack Quinn · 2nd 03:55 · GWG · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Beck Malenstyn · 2nd 18:36 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Tage Thompson · 3rd 19:38 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:22
Alexander Nikishin· Delaying game puck over glass
Tuch scored on this power play
Minor
1
Ryan McLeod, Josh Doan · Power play (Nikishin, delaying game puck over glass) · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
1–0
PEN
2 min
Bench minor
07:55
Bench· Delaying game unsuccessful challenge
Killed
Bench minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
12:16
Sebastian Aho· Roughing
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
12:55
Rasmus Dahlin· Tripping
Gostisbehere scored on this power play
Minor
2
Unassisted · Power play (Dahlin, tripping) · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
1–1
PEN
2 min
Minor
16:27
Sebastian Aho· Slashing
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
18:08
Alex Tuch· Slashing
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
05:26
Josh Dunne· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
15:59
William Carrier· Boarding
Killed
Minor
3rd period
Goaltending
29/30 saves · 1 GA · 3.3 xGA
Stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
17/20 saves · 3 GA · 3.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
The Sabres went 1-for-4 on the power play and allowed 1 on 4 Hurricanes power plays.