BUF
5–3
PHI
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 15-14-4
5–3
FinalW
Philadelphia Flyers
PHI · 17-10-6
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
14212212528
PHI
11211015327
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
BUF 15-14-4 · PHI 17-10-6 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Sabres beat the Flyers
Chances were even (2.6 to 2.9 expected goals); the Sabres won 5–3. Samuel Ersson allowed 1.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.6 expected goals to 2.9, on 28 and 27 shots on goal.
BUF 2.6 xG · 28 shots
PHI 2.9 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
0.4 · 1.3
2nd
1.2 · 1.1
3rd
1.0 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jack Quinn · 1st 07:40 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Noah Cates · 1st 08:38 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Cam York · 2nd 11:01 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Tage Thompson · 2nd 16:54 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Noah Ostlund · 2nd 19:30 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Josh Norris · 3rd 10:20 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Travis Konecny · 3rd 14:28 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Ryan McLeod · 3rd 19:52 · 5–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 45.
BUF 45%PHI 55%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 8 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Flyers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jack Quinn · 1st 07:40 · 1–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Noah Cates · 1st 08:38 · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Cam York · 2nd 11:01 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Tage Thompson · 2nd 16:54 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Noah Ostlund · 2nd 19:30 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Josh Norris · 3rd 10:20 · PP · GWG · 4–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Travis Konecny · 3rd 14:28 · 4–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Ryan McLeod · 3rd 19:52 · EN · 5–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
00:18
Rasmus Dahlin· Hooking
Rasmus Dahlin· Hooking
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
19:23
Travis Konecny· Hooking
Travis Konecny· Hooking
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:52
Alex Tuch· Tripping
Alex Tuch· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
07:42
Rasmus Ristolainen· Cross-checking
Rasmus Ristolainen· Cross-checking
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
11:18
Matvei Michkov· Interference goalkeeper
Matvei Michkov· Interference goalkeeper
Killed
Minor
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:02
Bobby Brink· High-sticking
Bobby Brink· High-sticking
Norris scored on this power play
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
15:19
Trevor Zegras· Hooking
Trevor Zegras· Hooking
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
17:41
Mattias Samuelsson· Delaying game puck over glass
Mattias Samuelsson· Delaying game puck over glass
Killed
Minor
Goaltending
24/27 saves · 3 GA · 2.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
23/27 saves · 4 GA · 2.6 xGA
Allowed 1.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Sabres went 1-for-5 on the power play and killed all 3 Flyers power plays.