BUF
5–3
MTL
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 26-16-4
5–3
FinalW
Montreal Canadiens
MTL · 26-15-7
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
21211025527
MTL
271808323
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
BUF 26-16-4 · MTL 26-15-7 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Sabres beat the Canadiens
Chances were even (2.2 to 2.7 expected goals); the Sabres won 5–3. Jacob Fowler allowed 1.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.2 expected goals to 2.7, on 27 and 23 shots on goal.
BUF 2.2 xG · 27 shots
MTL 2.7 xG · 23 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 0.9
2nd
0.9 · 0.9
3rd
0.5 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Cole Caufield · 1st 03:11 · 0–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Tage Thompson · 1st 04:05 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Josh Doan · 1st 10:30 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Ivan Demidov · 1st 14:20 · 2–2 · slap shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Nick Suzuki · 2nd 03:05 · 2–3 · snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (10%)
6
Alex Tuch · 2nd 08:55 · 3–3 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Tage Thompson · 3rd 05:12 · 4–3 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
8
Tage Thompson · 3rd 18:20 · 5–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 41.
BUF 41%MTL 59%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 11 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Canadiens shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Cole Caufield · 1st 03:11 · 0–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Tage Thompson · 1st 04:05 · PP · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Josh Doan · 1st 10:30 · PP · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Ivan Demidov · 1st 14:20 · PP · 2–2
Slap shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Nick Suzuki · 2nd 03:05 · PP · 2–3
Snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (10%)
6
Alex Tuch · 2nd 08:55 · 3–3
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Tage Thompson · 3rd 05:12 · GWG · 4–3
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
8
Tage Thompson · 3rd 18:20 · EN · 5–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
03:46
Lane Hutson· High-sticking
Lane Hutson· High-sticking
Thompson scored on this power play
Minor
2
Noah Ostlund, Jason Zucker · Power play (Hutson, high-sticking) · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
1–1
PEN
2 min
Minor
09:21
Kaiden Guhle· Interference
Kaiden Guhle· Interference
Doan scored on this power play
Minor
3
Tage Thompson, Noah Ostlund · Power play (Guhle, interference) · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2–1
PEN
2 min
Minor
12:50
Zach Benson· Slashing
Zach Benson· Slashing
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
13:46
Bowen Byram· High-sticking
Bowen Byram· High-sticking
Demidov scored on this power play
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
02:32
Jacob Bryson· Holding
Jacob Bryson· Holding
Suzuki scored on this power play
Minor
5
Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield · Power play (Bryson, holding) · snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (10%)
2–3
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:20
Bowen Byram· Roughing
Bowen Byram· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:20
Mike Matheson· Roughing
Mike Matheson· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
00:37
Phillip Danault· Tripping
Phillip Danault· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
07:08
Jordan Greenway· Roughing
Jordan Greenway· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
07:08
Brendan Gallagher· Roughing
Brendan Gallagher· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:39
Oliver Kapanen· Tripping
Oliver Kapanen· Tripping
Killed
Minor
Goaltending
20/23 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
22/26 saves · 4 GA · 2.2 xGA
Allowed 1.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Sabres went 2-for-4 on the power play and allowed 2 on 3 Canadiens power plays.