BUF
8–7
TBL
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 39-19-6
8–7
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 39-19-4
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
110315417842
TBL
06410313729
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–1
BUF 39-19-6 · TBL 39-19-4 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–1
Sabres beat the Lightning
Down 4–6 in the 3rd period, the Sabres erased the deficit with four unanswered goals — Zucker's equalizer — and won 8–7. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 3.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 4.7 expected goals to 3.7, on 42 and 28 shots on goal.
BUF 4.7 xG · 42 shots
TBL 3.7 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
0.5 · 0.8
2nd
1.9 · 2.0
3rd · the swing
2.3 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Josh Doan · 1st 08:26 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Jason Zucker · 2nd 02:15 · 2–0 · snap shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Alex Tuch · 2nd 05:10 · 3–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Corey Perry · 2nd 07:55 · 3–1 · backhand shot, a great chance (28%)
5
Alex Tuch · 2nd 11:07 · 4–1 · backhand shot, a great chance (32%)
6
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 12:26 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
7
Zemgus Girgensons · 2nd 14:46 · 4–3 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
8
J.J. Moser · 2nd 17:37 · 4–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
9
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 00:59 · 4–5 · snap shot, a good chance (13%)
10
Brayden Point · 3rd 05:46 · 4–6
11
Sam Carrick · 3rd 06:12 · 5–6 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
12
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 09:48 · 5–7 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
13
Rasmus Dahlin · 3rd 11:03 · 6–7 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
14
Jason Zucker · 3rd 14:29 · 7–7 · backhand shot, a great chance (33%)
15
Josh Doan · 3rd 15:43 · 8–7 · wrist shot, a great chance (26%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 63.
BUF 63%TBL 37%
Goals and penalties
15 goals · 28 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Josh Doan · 1st 08:26 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Jason Zucker · 2nd 02:15 · PP · 2–0
Snap shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Alex Tuch · 2nd 05:10 · PP · 3–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Corey Perry · 2nd 07:55 · 3–1
Backhand shot, a great chance (28%)
5
Alex Tuch · 2nd 11:07 · SH · 4–1
Backhand shot, a great chance (32%)
6
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 12:26 · PP · 4–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
7
Zemgus Girgensons · 2nd 14:46 · 4–3
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
8
J.J. Moser · 2nd 17:37 · 4–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
9
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 00:59 · 4–5
Snap shot, a good chance (13%)
10
Brayden Point · 3rd 05:46 · 4–6
11
Sam Carrick · 3rd 06:12 · 5–6
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
12
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 09:48 · 5–7
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
13
Rasmus Dahlin · 3rd 11:03 · 6–7
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
14
Jason Zucker · 3rd 14:29 · 7–7
Backhand shot, a great chance (33%)
15
Josh Doan · 3rd 15:43 · PP · GWG · 8–7
Wrist shot, a great chance (26%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:36
Darren Raddysh· Slashing
Darren Raddysh· Slashing
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:36
Brandon Hagel· Boarding
Brandon Hagel· Boarding
Killed
Minor
PEN
5 min
Major
04:36
Darren Raddysh· Fighting
Darren Raddysh· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
5 min
Major
04:36
Rasmus Dahlin· Fighting
Rasmus Dahlin· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:20
Erik Cernak· Interference
Erik Cernak· Interference
Doan scored on this power play
Minor
1
Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram · Power play (Cernak, interference) · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
1–0
PEN
5 min
Major
08:54
Sam Carrick· Fighting
Sam Carrick· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
5 min
Major
08:54
Scott Sabourin· Fighting
Scott Sabourin· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
2 min
Minor
09:13
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Roughing
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
09:13
Bowen Byram· Roughing
Bowen Byram· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
5 min
Major
09:13
Brandon Hagel· Fighting
Brandon Hagel· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
5 min
Major
09:13
Peyton Krebs· Fighting
Peyton Krebs· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
10 min
Misconduct
09:13
Bowen Byram· Misconduct
Bowen Byram· Misconduct
Misconduct
PEN
10 min
Misconduct
09:13
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Misconduct
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Misconduct
Misconduct
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:40
Mattias Samuelsson· Slashing
Mattias Samuelsson· Slashing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:40
Nikita Kucherov· Slashing
Nikita Kucherov· Slashing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
14:59
Erik Cernak· Unsportsmanlike conduct
Erik Cernak· Unsportsmanlike conduct
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
14:59
Michael Kesselring· Unsportsmanlike conduct
Michael Kesselring· Unsportsmanlike conduct
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
16:41
Noah Ostlund· Unsportsmanlike conduct
Noah Ostlund· Unsportsmanlike conduct
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
5 min
Major
00:02
Michael Kesselring· Fighting
Michael Kesselring· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
5 min
Major
00:02
Erik Cernak· Fighting
Erik Cernak· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
5 min
Major
00:06
Corey Perry· Fighting
Corey Perry· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
5 min
Major
00:06
Beck Malenstyn· Fighting
Beck Malenstyn· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
2 min
Minor
01:31
Ryan McDonagh· High-sticking
Ryan McDonagh· High-sticking
Zucker scored on this power play
Minor
2
Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Power play (McDonagh, high-sticking) · snap shot, a good chance (23%)
2–0
PEN
2 min
Minor
03:35
Brandon Hagel· Roughing
Brandon Hagel· Roughing
Tuch scored on this power play
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
03:35
Brandon Hagel· Roughing
Brandon Hagel· Roughing
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:56
Owen Power· High-sticking
Owen Power· High-sticking
Kucherov scored on this power play
Minor
6
Darren Raddysh · Power play (Power, high-sticking) · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4–2
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
15:03
Zemgus Girgensons· Slashing
Zemgus Girgensons· Slashing
Doan scored on this power play
Minor
15
Jason Zucker, Rasmus Dahlin · Power play (Girgensons, slashing) · wrist shot, a great chance (26%)
8–7
PEN
2 min
Minor
20:00
Anthony Cirelli· Charging
Anthony Cirelli· Charging
Killed
Minor
Goaltending
22/28 saves · 6 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 3.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
34/42 saves · 8 GA · 6.1 xGA
Allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Sabres went 4-for-6 on the power play and allowed 1 on 2 Lightning power plays.