BUF
4–2
TBL
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 47-23-8
4–2
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 48-23-6
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
21111415430
TBL
181809225
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 3–1
BUF 47-23-8 · TBL 48-23-6 · Meeting 4 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 3–1
Sabres beat the Lightning
Chances were even (3.4 to 3.5 expected goals); the Sabres won 4–2. The Sabres owned the 1st period, 2.0 to 0.8 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.4 expected goals to 3.5, on 30 and 25 shots on goal.
BUF 3.4 xG · 30 shots
TBL 3.5 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
2.0 · 0.8
2nd
1.1 · 1.3
3rd
0.3 · 1.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 05:42 · 1–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 11:45 · 1–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Josh Norris · 1st 14:04 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a great chance (26%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 03:56 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Jason Zucker · 2nd 07:38 · 3–2 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Jack Quinn · 3rd 18:06 · 4–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 49.
BUF 49%TBL 51%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 13 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 05:42 · 1–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 11:45 · PP · 1–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Josh Norris · 1st 14:04 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a great chance (26%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 03:56 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Jason Zucker · 2nd 07:38 · GWG · 3–2
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Jack Quinn · 3rd 18:06 · EN · 4–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
01:56
Pontus Holmberg· Holding the stick
Pontus Holmberg· Holding the stick
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
03:33
Alex Tuch· Holding the stick
Alex Tuch· Holding the stick
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
07:19
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Tripping
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:03
Jordan Greenway· Cross-checking
Jordan Greenway· Cross-checking
Kucherov scored on this power play
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:03
Josh Dunne· Roughing
Josh Dunne· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:03
Corey Perry· Roughing
Corey Perry· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
2
Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh · Power play (Greenway, cross-checking) · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1–1
PEN
2 min
Minor
16:37
Josh Doan· Tripping
Josh Doan· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
19:25
Zemgus Girgensons· Slashing
Zemgus Girgensons· Slashing
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:06
Jack Quinn· High-sticking
Jack Quinn· High-sticking
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:05
Erik Cernak· Interference
Erik Cernak· Interference
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
16:32
Alex Tuch· Tripping
Alex Tuch· Tripping
Killed
Minor
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:40
Zach Benson· Roughing
Zach Benson· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:40
Jake Guentzel· Roughing
Jake Guentzel· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
Goaltending
23/25 saves · 2 GA · 2.5 xGA
Stopped 0.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
26/29 saves · 3 GA · 2.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
The Sabres went 0-for-4 on the power play and allowed 1 on 4 Lightning power plays.