MIN
3–2
CGY
Final / OT · W
Minnesota Wild
MIN · 52-22-7
3–2
Final / OTW
Calgary Flames
CGY · 50-20-11
1ST2ND3RDOTT
MIN
010141912325
CGY
0611211500233
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Wild trail the season series 1–2
MIN 52-22-7 · CGY 50-20-11 · Meeting 3 this season — the Wild trail the season series 1–2
Wild beat the Flames
Chances were even (1.8 to 1.6 expected goals); the Wild won it in overtime on Kaprizov's goal. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 1.8 expected goals to 1.6, on 25 and 33 shots on goal.
MIN 1.8 xG · 25 shots
CGY 1.6 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.5 · 0.2
2nd
0.3 · 0.7
3rd
0.8 · 0.7
OT
0.1 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Johnny Gaudreau · 2nd 02:59 · 0–1 · backhand shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jonas Brodin · 2nd 06:02 · 1–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Frederick Gaudreau · 3rd 11:59 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Elias Lindholm · 3rd 17:04 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Kirill Kaprizov · OT 00:44 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Wild win 54.
MIN 54%CGY 46%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Wild shoot this way
Flames shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Johnny Gaudreau · 2nd 02:59 · 0–1
Backhand shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jonas Brodin · 2nd 06:02 · PP · 1–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Frederick Gaudreau · 3rd 11:59 · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Elias Lindholm · 3rd 17:04 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Kirill Kaprizov · OT 00:44 · PP · GWG · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
2
Frederick Gaudreau, Jordan Greenway · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
1–1
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
31/33 saves · 2 GA · 1.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
22/25 saves · 3 GA · 1.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
