Minnesota Wild
MIN · 2-1
5–1
FinalW
Dallas Stars
DAL · 1-2
1ST2ND3RDT
MIN
192927525
DAL
061909124
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Wild lead the series 2–1
MIN 2-1 · DAL 1-2 · Game 3 — the Wild lead the series 2–1
Wild beat the Stars
The Wild earned it: 2.4 expected goals to 1.4, and a 5–1 win to show for it. Jake Oettinger allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Wild created the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.4, on 25 and 24 shots on goal.
MIN 2.4 xG · 25 shots
DAL 1.4 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.7 · 0.3
2nd · the swing
1.1 · 0.3
3rd
0.6 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Mats Zuccarello · 1st 16:45 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Marcus Johansson · 2nd 02:14 · 2–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Luke Glendening · 2nd 02:25 · 2–1 · deflected shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Marcus Foligno · 2nd 11:24 · 3–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Mats Zuccarello · 3rd 14:07 · 4–1 · snap shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Ryan Hartman · 3rd 18:10 · 5–1 · snap shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Wild win 69.
MIN 69%DAL 31%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Mats Zuccarello · 1st 16:45 · 1–0
Backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Marcus Johansson · 2nd 02:14 · GWG · 2–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Luke Glendening · 2nd 02:25 · 2–1
Deflected shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Marcus Foligno · 2nd 11:24 · PP · 3–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Mats Zuccarello · 3rd 14:07 · 4–1
Snap shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Ryan Hartman · 3rd 18:10 · EN · 5–1
Snap shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
23/24 saves · 1 GA · 1.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
20/24 saves · 4 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.