MIN
5–2
VGK
Final · W
Minnesota Wild
MIN · 2-1
5–2
FinalW
Vegas Golden Knights
VGK · 1-2
1ST2ND3RDT
MIN
27214110531
VGK
11206114232
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Wild lead the series 2–1
MIN 2-1 · VGK 1-2 · Game 3 — the Wild lead the series 2–1
Wild beat the Golden Knights
The Wild were outchanced (3.1 to 2.5 expected goals) but won 5–2 anyway. Adin Hill allowed 2.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Golden Knights created the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 2.5, on 32 and 31 shots on goal.
MIN 2.5 xG · 31 shots
VGK 3.1 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.6 · 0.6
2nd
1.0 · 0.8
3rd · the swing
0.9 · 1.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Kirill Kaprizov · 1st 03:13 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Marco Rossi · 1st 06:51 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Alex Pietrangelo · 1st 10:48 · 2–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Matt Boldy · 2nd 11:05 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Kirill Kaprizov · 2nd 19:58 · 4–1 · deflected shot, a good chance (16%)
6
Reilly Smith · 3rd 11:34 · 4–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
7
Marcus Foligno · 3rd 18:27 · 5–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Wild win 40.
MIN 40%VGK 60%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Wild shoot this way
Golden Knights shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Kirill Kaprizov · 1st 03:13 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Marco Rossi · 1st 06:51 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Alex Pietrangelo · 1st 10:48 · 2–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Matt Boldy · 2nd 11:05 · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Kirill Kaprizov · 2nd 19:58 · PP · 4–1
Deflected shot, a good chance (16%)
6
Reilly Smith · 3rd 11:34 · SH · 4–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
7
Marcus Foligno · 3rd 18:27 · EN · 5–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
30/32 saves · 2 GA · 3.1 xGA
Stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
17/21 saves · 4 GA · 1.6 xGA
Allowed 2.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
