NSH
4–3
COL
Final · W
Nashville Predators
NSH · 7-10-0
4–3
FinalW
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 11-6-0
1ST2ND3RDT
NSH
11016214430
COL
1821506329
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Predators lead the season series 1–0
NSH 7-10-0 · COL 11-6-0 · First meeting this season — the Predators lead the season series 1–0
Predators beat the Avalanche
The Predators earned it: 3.6 expected goals to 2.0, and a 4–3 win to show for it. Trenin's winner came with 0:22 left. Juuse Saros allowed 1.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Predators created the better chances: 3.6 expected goals to 2.0, on 30 and 29 shots on goal.
NSH 3.6 xG · 30 shots
COL 2.0 xG · 29 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.6 · 0.4
2nd
0.5 · 1.2
3rd · the swing
1.6 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Andrew Cogliano · 1st 14:00 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
2
Filip Forsberg · 1st 19:42 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Jeremy Lauzon · 2nd 03:56 · 2–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
4
Devon Toews · 2nd 08:55 · 2–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Valeri Nichushkin · 2nd 13:33 · 2–3 · tip in shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Filip Forsberg · 3rd 19:22 · 3–3 · bat shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
7
Yakov Trenin · 3rd 19:38 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Predators win 74.
NSH 74%COL 26%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Predators shoot this way
Avalanche shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Andrew Cogliano · 1st 14:00 · SH · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
2
Filip Forsberg · 1st 19:42 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Jeremy Lauzon · 2nd 03:56 · 2–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
4
Devon Toews · 2nd 08:55 · 2–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Valeri Nichushkin · 2nd 13:33 · PP · 2–3
Tip in shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Filip Forsberg · 3rd 19:22 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–3
Bat shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
7
Yakov Trenin · 3rd 19:38 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
26/29 saves · 3 GA · 2.0 xGA
Allowed 1.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
26/30 saves · 4 GA · 3.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
