STL 3–2 TBL Final / SO · W
Blues/Schedule/Recap Fri, Jan 16, 2026 · 2025-26 regular season
St. Louis Blues
STL · 19-21-8
3–2
Final / SOW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 29-13-4
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT STL 270505041321 TBL 01121508020236 goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
STL 19-21-8 · TBL 29-13-4 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1

Blues beat the Lightning

The Blues were outchanced (3.9 to 1.6 expected goals) but won it in a shootout anyway. Joel Hofer stopped 1.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.

Who had the better chances

The Lightning created the better chances: 3.9 expected goals to 1.6, on 36 and 21 shots on goal.

STL 1.6 xG · 21 shots TBL 3.9 xG · 36 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st 0.5 · 1.3
2nd · the swing 0.3 · 1.6
3rd 0.4 · 0.7
OT 0.3 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Blues win 16.
STL 16%TBL 84%

Goals and penalties

4 goals · 5 penalties
← Blues shoot this way Lightning shoot this way →
On net Missed Bigger = better chance 1Goal, numbered to the list
1st period
1
17:03 Jake Neighbours
Jordan Kyrou, Cam Fowler · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
1–0
2
17:33 Nick Bjugstad
Pavel Buchnevich · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2–0
PEN
18:40 Gage Goncalves· Hooking
Killed
2 min
Minor
2nd period
PEN
08:03 Alexey Toropchenko· Tripping
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
09:51 Nathan Walker· Tripping
Kucherov scored on this power play
2 min
Minor
3
09:59 Nikita Kucherov PP
Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Power play (Walker, tripping) · slap shot, a good chance (13%)
2–1
4
11:01 Oliver Bjorkstrand PP
Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Power play (Walker, tripping) · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2–2
PEN
13:05 Jake Guentzel· Hooking
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
19:30 Brayden Schenn· High-sticking
Killed
2 min
Minor
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
Shootout
1 Gage Goncalves Save
2 Jake Neighbours Save
3 Jake Guentzel Save
4 Jordan Kyrou Goal
5 Nikita Kucherov Save
Goaltending
+1.9
vs expected
34/36 saves · 2 GA · 3.9 xGA Stopped 1.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.
−0.4
vs expected
19/21 saves · 2 GA · 1.6 xGA Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
Team STLTBL
Shots on goal
21
36
Expected goals
1.6
3.9
Hits
24
12
Blocks
10
11
Faceoffs
46%
54%
Power play
0/2
2/3
Penalty minutes
6
4
The Blues went 0-for-2 on the power play and allowed 2 on 3 Lightning power plays.