TBL
5–4
DAL
Final / OT · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 9-6-1
5–4
Final / OTW
Dallas Stars
DAL · 9-5-2
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
1921411015538
DAL
11021011002432
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
TBL 9-6-1 · DAL 9-5-2 · First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
Lightning beat the Stars
The Lightning earned it: 4.7 expected goals to 3.2, and they won it in overtime on Killorn's goal. The Lightning owned the 3rd period, 1.9 to 0.7 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.7 expected goals to 3.2, on 38 and 32 shots on goal.
TBL 4.7 xG · 38 shots
DAL 3.2 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
0.9 · 0.9
2nd
1.2 · 1.3
3rd · the swing
1.9 · 0.7
OT
0.7 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Ross Colton · 1st 01:20 · 1–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (25%)
2
Mason Marchment · 1st 14:45 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 04:47 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Joe Pavelski · 2nd 08:02 · 2–2 · deflected shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
5
Jason Robertson · 2nd 09:57 · 2–3 · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
6
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 14:23 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Ian Cole · 3rd 03:55 · 4–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
8
Radek Faksa · 3rd 15:18 · 4–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
9
Alex Killorn · OT 03:43 · 5–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 70.
TBL 70%DAL 30%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Stars shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Ross Colton · 1st 01:20 · 1–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (25%)
2
Mason Marchment · 1st 14:45 · PP · 1–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 04:47 · PP · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Joe Pavelski · 2nd 08:02 · PP · 2–2
Deflected shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
5
Jason Robertson · 2nd 09:57 · 2–3
Snap shot, a good chance (19%)
6
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 14:23 · 3–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Ian Cole · 3rd 03:55 · 4–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
8
Radek Faksa · 3rd 15:18 · SH · 4–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
9
Alex Killorn · OT 03:43 · GWG · 5–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
9
Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5–4
No penalties
Goaltending
28/32 saves · 4 GA · 3.2 xGA
Allowed 0.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
33/38 saves · 5 GA · 4.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
