TBL
4–1
CGY
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 10-6-1
4–1
FinalW
Calgary Flames
CGY · 7-7-2
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
1111627424
CGY
012016112140
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
TBL 10-6-1 · CGY 7-7-2 · First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
Lightning beat the Flames
The Lightning earned it: 3.4 expected goals to 2.3, and a 4–1 win to show for it. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 2.3, on 24 and 40 shots on goal.
TBL 3.4 xG · 24 shots
CGY 2.3 xG · 40 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.3 · 0.5
2nd
1.1 · 1.1
3rd
0.9 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 08:03 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 18:16 · 2–0 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Nazem Kadri · 3rd 04:53 · 2–1 · deflected shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Philippe Myers · 3rd 05:03 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:46 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 67.
TBL 67%CGY 33%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Flames shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 08:03 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 18:16 · PP · GWG · 2–0
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Nazem Kadri · 3rd 04:53 · PP · 2–1
Deflected shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Philippe Myers · 3rd 05:03 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:46 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
39/40 saves · 1 GA · 2.3 xGA
Stopped 1.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
20/23 saves · 3 GA · 3.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
