TBL
3–5
WSH
Final · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 30-23-5
3–5
FinalL
Washington Capitals
WSH · 26-21-8
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
01017215332
WSH
2811125524
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 30-23-5 · WSH 26-21-8 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Lightning fell to the Capitals
Chances were even (2.8 to 2.4 expected goals); the Lightning lost 3–5. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.8 expected goals to 2.4, on 32 and 24 shots on goal.
TBL 2.8 xG · 32 shots
WSH 2.4 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 1.4
2nd
0.4 · 0.9
3rd · the swing
1.4 · 0.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nicolas Aube-Kubel · 1st 02:30 · 0–1 · backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
2
Connor McMichael · 1st 16:19 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 09:16 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Anthony Mantha · 2nd 12:14 · 1–3 · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Nick Paul · 3rd 02:42 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
6
· 3rd 03:06 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
7
Rasmus Sandin · 3rd 15:01 · 3–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
8
Connor McMichael · 3rd 18:58 · 3–5 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 57.
TBL 57%WSH 43%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Capitals shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nicolas Aube-Kubel · 1st 02:30 · 0–1
Backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
2
Connor McMichael · 1st 16:19 · 0–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 09:16 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Anthony Mantha · 2nd 12:14 · 1–3
Snap shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Nick Paul · 3rd 02:42 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
6
· 3rd 03:06 · 3–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
7
Rasmus Sandin · 3rd 15:01 · GWG · 3–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
8
Connor McMichael · 3rd 18:58 · EN · 3–5
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
19/23 saves · 4 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
29/32 saves · 3 GA · 2.8 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
