TBL
7–4
BUF
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 46-26-8
7–4
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 35-38-7
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
15415211731
BUF
2110727425
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
TBL 46-26-8 · BUF 35-38-7 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
Lightning beat the Sabres
The Lightning earned it: 5.5 expected goals to 2.4, and a 7–4 win to show for it. Jonas Johansson allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 5.5 expected goals to 2.4, on 31 and 25 shots on goal.
TBL 5.5 xG · 31 shots
BUF 2.4 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1st
1.8 · 1.2
2nd · the swing
2.6 · 0.5
3rd
1.1 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jake Guentzel · 1st 16:35 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a great chance (32%)
2
Jiri Kulich · 1st 19:37 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Connor Clifton · 1st 19:52 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
4
Ryan McDonagh · 2nd 03:02 · 2–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 06:34 · 3–2 · snap shot, a great chance (48%)
6
Conor Geekie · 2nd 14:21 · 4–2 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (42%)
7
Emil Lilleberg · 2nd 16:45 · 5–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
8
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 02:39 · 6–2 · snap shot, a good chance (22%)
9
Alex Tuch · 3rd 08:39 · 6–3 · tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
10
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 13:12 · 7–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
11
Sam Lafferty · 3rd 18:23 · 7–4 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 87.
TBL 87%BUF 13%
Goals and penalties
11 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jake Guentzel · 1st 16:35 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a great chance (32%)
2
Jiri Kulich · 1st 19:37 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Connor Clifton · 1st 19:52 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
4
Ryan McDonagh · 2nd 03:02 · 2–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 06:34 · 3–2
Snap shot, a great chance (48%)
6
Conor Geekie · 2nd 14:21 · 4–2
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (42%)
7
Emil Lilleberg · 2nd 16:45 · GWG · 5–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
8
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 02:39 · 6–2
Snap shot, a good chance (22%)
9
Alex Tuch · 3rd 08:39 · PP · 6–3
Tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
10
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 13:12 · PP · 7–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
11
Sam Lafferty · 3rd 18:23 · 7–4
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
21/25 saves · 4 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
24/31 saves · 7 GA · 5.5 xGA
Allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
