TOR
2–4
TBL
Final · L
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 3-2
2–4
FinalL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 2-3
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
1907114230
TBL
114111213438
goals · shots on goal
Game 5 — the Maple Leafs lead the series 3–2
TOR 3-2 · TBL 2-3 · Game 5 — the Maple Leafs lead the series 3–2
Maple Leafs fell to the Lightning
The Maple Leafs created the better chances (3.7 to 2.6 expected goals) — and lost 2–4. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 2.6, on 30 and 38 shots on goal.
TOR 3.7 xG · 30 shots
TBL 2.6 xG · 38 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.3 · 0.9
2nd
0.6 · 0.8
3rd · the swing
1.8 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Morgan Rielly · 1st 05:46 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 06:12 · 1–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
3
Michael Eyssimont · 2nd 04:23 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Nick Paul · 3rd 11:53 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 16:26 · 2–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
6
Alex Killorn · 3rd 19:55 · 2–4 · backhand shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 66.
TOR 66%TBL 34%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Morgan Rielly · 1st 05:46 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 06:12 · 1–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
3
Michael Eyssimont · 2nd 04:23 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Nick Paul · 3rd 11:53 · GWG · 1–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 16:26 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 2–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
6
Alex Killorn · 3rd 19:55 · EN · 2–4
Backhand shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
34/37 saves · 3 GA · 2.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
28/30 saves · 2 GA · 3.7 xGA
Stopped 1.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
