TOR
5–1
WSH
Final · W
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 41-22-9
5–1
FinalW
Washington Capitals
WSH · 36-27-9
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
119214215548
WSH
0811006124
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 3–0
TOR 41-22-9 · WSH 36-27-9 · Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 3–0
Maple Leafs beat the Capitals
The Maple Leafs earned it: 3.8 expected goals to 1.5, and a 5–1 win to show for it. Charlie Lindgren allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.8 expected goals to 1.5, on 48 and 24 shots on goal.
TOR 3.8 xG · 48 shots
WSH 1.5 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.2 · 0.8
2nd
1.4 · 0.5
3rd · the swing
1.3 · 0.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Mark Giordano · 1st 10:09 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
2
Tyler Bertuzzi · 2nd 00:18 · 2–0 · deflected shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Nic Dowd · 2nd 05:27 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Connor Dewar · 2nd 11:38 · 3–1 · backhand shot, a good chance (18%)
5
Bobby McMann · 3rd 01:06 · 4–1 · snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (16%)
6
Tyler Bertuzzi · 3rd 10:11 · 5–1 · snap shot, a great chance (26%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 85.
TOR 85%WSH 15%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Capitals shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Mark Giordano · 1st 10:09 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
2
Tyler Bertuzzi · 2nd 00:18 · GWG · 2–0
Deflected shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Nic Dowd · 2nd 05:27 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Connor Dewar · 2nd 11:38 · 3–1
Backhand shot, a good chance (18%)
5
Bobby McMann · 3rd 01:06 · 4–1
Snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (16%)
6
Tyler Bertuzzi · 3rd 10:11 · 5–1
Snap shot, a great chance (26%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
23/24 saves · 1 GA · 1.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
43/48 saves · 5 GA · 3.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
