UTA
5–2
BUF
Final · W
Utah Mammoth
UTA · 10-7-0
5–2
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 5-7-4
1ST2ND3RDT
UTA
012111414537
BUF
181803219
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the Mammoth lead the season series 2–0
UTA 10-7-0 · BUF 5-7-4 · Meeting 2 this season — the Mammoth lead the season series 2–0
Mammoth beat the Sabres
Down 0–2 in the 2nd period, the Mammoth erased the deficit with five unanswered goals — Peterka's equalizer — and won 5–2. Colten Ellis allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.5 expected goals to 2.3, on 37 and 19 shots on goal.
UTA 2.5 xG · 37 shots
BUF 2.3 xG · 19 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.9 · 0.7
2nd · the swing
0.7 · 1.5
3rd
0.9 · 0.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Isak Rosen · 1st 05:33 · 0–1 · deflected shot, a good chance (19%)
2
Isak Rosen · 2nd 06:42 · 0–2 · slap shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Nick DeSimone · 2nd 10:42 · 1–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
JJ Peterka · 3rd 00:52 · 2–2 · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
5
Lawson Crouse · 3rd 03:22 · 3–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Nick Schmaltz · 3rd 10:09 · 4–2 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Clayton Keller · 3rd 19:33 · 5–2 · snap shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Mammoth win 54.
UTA 54%BUF 46%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Mammoth shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Isak Rosen · 1st 05:33 · 0–1
Deflected shot, a good chance (19%)
2
Isak Rosen · 2nd 06:42 · 0–2
Slap shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Nick DeSimone · 2nd 10:42 · 1–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
JJ Peterka · 3rd 00:52 · 2–2
Snap shot, a good chance (11%)
5
Lawson Crouse · 3rd 03:22 · GWG · 3–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Nick Schmaltz · 3rd 10:09 · 4–2
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Clayton Keller · 3rd 19:33 · EN · 5–2
Snap shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
17/19 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
32/36 saves · 4 GA · 2.5 xGA
Allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
