BUF
9–3
TOR
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 14-17-3
9–3
FinalW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 16-8-6
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
313310311934
TOR
21015012327
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–0
BUF 14-17-3 · TOR 16-8-6 · Meeting 2 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–0
Sabres beat the Maple Leafs
The Sabres earned it: 3.7 expected goals to 2.7, and a 9–3 win to show for it. Ilya Samsonov allowed 3.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 2.7, on 34 and 27 shots on goal.
BUF 3.7 xG · 34 shots
TOR 2.7 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.9 · 1.0
2nd
1.3 · 0.7
3rd
1.5 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jordan Greenway · 1st 02:27 · 1–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 1st 07:28 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
3
Max Domi · 1st 12:39 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Owen Power · 1st 13:44 · 2–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (12%)
5
· 1st 15:51 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 04:44 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 05:42 · 4–3 · slap shot, a good chance (15%)
8
Tage Thompson · 2nd 08:22 · 5–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
9
Kyle Okposo · 2nd 11:04 · 6–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
10
Jack Quinn · 3rd 11:08 · 7–3 · snap shot, a great chance (27%)
11
· 3rd 12:23 · 8–3 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
12
Kyle Okposo · 3rd 15:02 · 9–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 65.
BUF 65%TOR 35%
Goals and penalties
12 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jordan Greenway · 1st 02:27 · 1–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 1st 07:28 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
3
Max Domi · 1st 12:39 · PP · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Owen Power · 1st 13:44 · 2–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (12%)
5
· 1st 15:51 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 04:44 · PP · GWG · 4–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 05:42 · SH · 4–3
Slap shot, a good chance (15%)
8
Tage Thompson · 2nd 08:22 · 5–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
9
Kyle Okposo · 2nd 11:04 · SH · 6–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
10
Jack Quinn · 3rd 11:08 · 7–3
Snap shot, a great chance (27%)
11
· 3rd 12:23 · 8–3
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
12
Kyle Okposo · 3rd 15:02 · 9–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
24/27 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
14/19 saves · 5 GA · 1.5 xGA
Allowed 3.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
