BUF
7–3
DET
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 31-30-5
7–3
FinalW
Detroit Red Wings
DET · 33-26-6
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
413314012739
DET
1711215324
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
BUF 31-30-5 · DET 33-26-6 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Sabres beat the Red Wings
Chances were even (3.0 to 2.5 expected goals); the Sabres won 7–3. Alex Lyon allowed 2.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.0 expected goals to 2.5, on 39 and 24 shots on goal.
BUF 3.0 xG · 39 shots
DET 2.5 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.2 · 0.4
2nd
0.9 · 1.4
3rd
0.9 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 01:07 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Bowen Byram · 1st 10:09 · 2–0 · snap shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Ben Chiarot · 1st 12:37 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Zach Benson · 1st 13:00 · 3–1 · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
5
· 1st 15:29 · 4–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Connor Clifton · 2nd 04:27 · 5–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
7
Bowen Byram · 2nd 09:05 · 6–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (29%)
8
Lucas Raymond · 2nd 09:29 · 6–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (24%)
9
JJ Peterka · 2nd 13:49 · 7–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
10
Jake Walman · 3rd 17:32 · 7–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 58.
BUF 58%DET 42%
Goals and penalties
10 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Red Wings shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 01:07 · 1–0
Backhand shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Bowen Byram · 1st 10:09 · 2–0
Snap shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Ben Chiarot · 1st 12:37 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Zach Benson · 1st 13:00 · 3–1
Snap shot, a good chance (11%)
5
· 1st 15:29 · GWG · 4–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Connor Clifton · 2nd 04:27 · 5–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
7
Bowen Byram · 2nd 09:05 · 6–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (29%)
8
Lucas Raymond · 2nd 09:29 · PP · 6–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (24%)
9
JJ Peterka · 2nd 13:49 · 7–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
10
Jake Walman · 3rd 17:32 · 7–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1st period
2
Zach Benson, Jordan Greenway · snap shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2–0
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
21/24 saves · 3 GA · 2.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
23/26 saves · 3 GA · 1.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
