BUF
4–2
WSH
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 38-37-5
4–2
FinalW
Washington Capitals
WSH · 37-31-11
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
151626417
WSH
0111419224
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–1
BUF 38-37-5 · WSH 37-31-11 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres lead the season series 2–1
Sabres beat the Capitals
The Sabres were outchanced (2.3 to 1.4 expected goals) but won 4–2 anyway. Charlie Lindgren allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Capitals created the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.4, on 24 and 17 shots on goal.
BUF 1.4 xG · 17 shots
WSH 2.3 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
1st · the swing
0.3 · 1.3
2nd
0.6 · 0.2
3rd
0.5 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Zach Benson · 1st 19:00 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Alex Tuch · 2nd 12:37 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Connor McMichael · 2nd 14:36 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Jack Quinn · 3rd 09:46 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Dylan Cozens · 3rd 17:43 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
6
Tom Wilson · 3rd 19:00 · 4–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 32.
BUF 32%WSH 68%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Capitals shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Zach Benson · 1st 19:00 · 1–0
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Alex Tuch · 2nd 12:37 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Connor McMichael · 2nd 14:36 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Jack Quinn · 3rd 09:46 · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Dylan Cozens · 3rd 17:43 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
6
Tom Wilson · 3rd 19:00 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 4–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/24 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
13/16 saves · 3 GA · 1.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
