Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 11-12-3
2–3
Final / OTL
Winnipeg Jets
WPG · 19-8-0
1ST2ND3RDOTT
BUF
2110100702230
WPG
1141120312331
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–1
BUF 11-12-3 · WPG 19-8-0 · First meeting this season — the Sabres trail the season series 0–1
Sabres fell to the Jets
The Sabres were outchanced (3.7 to 2.4 expected goals) and lost it in overtime on Lowry's goal.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Jets created the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 2.4, on 31 and 30 shots on goal.
BUF 2.4 xG · 30 shots
WPG 3.7 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
0.6 · 1.5
2nd
0.9 · 1.7
3rd
0.7 · 0.2
OT
0.2 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 03:27 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Gabriel Vilardi · 1st 04:14 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
3
Dylan Cozens · 1st 11:29 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Kyle Connor · 2nd 03:06 · 2–2 · slap shot, a great chance (26%)
5
Adam Lowry · OT 03:59 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 29.
BUF 29%WPG 71%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 03:27 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Gabriel Vilardi · 1st 04:14 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
3
Dylan Cozens · 1st 11:29 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Kyle Connor · 2nd 03:06 · PP · 2–2
Slap shot, a great chance (26%)
5
Adam Lowry · OT 03:59 · GWG · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
28/31 saves · 3 GA · 3.7 xGA
Stopped 0.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
28/30 saves · 2 GA · 2.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.