BUF
7–3
PIT
Final · W
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 30-35-6
7–3
FinalW
Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT · 29-34-11
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF
21051208730
PIT
1701226325
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 1–2
BUF 30-35-6 · PIT 29-34-11 · Meeting 3 this season — the Sabres trail the season series 1–2
Sabres beat the Penguins
The Sabres earned it: 3.0 expected goals to 1.7, and a 7–3 win to show for it. Tristan Jarry allowed 2.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 1.7, on 30 and 25 shots on goal.
BUF 3.0 xG · 30 shots
PIT 1.7 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.2 · 0.6
2nd
1.4 · 0.7
3rd
0.4 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 00:27 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Peyton Krebs · 1st 04:44 · 2–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Sidney Crosby · 1st 11:11 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (24%)
4
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 03:36 · 3–1 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Mattias Samuelsson · 2nd 05:20 · 4–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 11:34 · 5–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Tyson Kozak · 2nd 12:02 · 6–1 · backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
8
Alex Tuch · 2nd 19:34 · 7–1 · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
9
Blake Lizotte · 3rd 02:16 · 7–2
10
Kevin Hayes · 3rd 13:54 · 7–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Sabres win 72.
BUF 72%PIT 28%
Goals and penalties
10 goals · 0 penalties← Sabres shoot this way
Penguins shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 00:27 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Peyton Krebs · 1st 04:44 · 2–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Sidney Crosby · 1st 11:11 · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (24%)
4
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 03:36 · 3–1
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Mattias Samuelsson · 2nd 05:20 · GWG · 4–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 11:34 · 5–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Tyson Kozak · 2nd 12:02 · 6–1
Backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
8
Alex Tuch · 2nd 19:34 · 7–1
Snap shot, a good chance (11%)
9
Blake Lizotte · 3rd 02:16 · 7–2
10
Kevin Hayes · 3rd 13:54 · 7–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
7
Beck Malenstyn, Peyton Krebs · backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6–1
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
23/25 saves · 2 GA · 1.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
15/18 saves · 3 GA · 1.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
